| ← New Money · Issue 006 · The Sunday Brief |
Sunday, April 12, 2026 |
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◆ Issue 006 · April 12
Position before priced in.
The five quiet moves that are still mispriced this week.
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From the editor
Anything obvious in this newsletter is already priced in by the time it’s obvious. The job is to be early. Not early in a venture-capital sense — early in the “you’ll do this in 18 months whether you like it or not” sense. This week: five moves that look weird right now and look default by 2028.
Three fractional roles vs one full-time (per BLS JOLTS), why 50/30/20 broke for tech comp, spreadsheet AI that talks back, selling your job’s automation, and where $1.4T of climate capex is actually landing.
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The fractional economy: when 3 part-time roles beat 1 full-time.
JOLTS data: contract/fractional postings up +38% YoY at the C-staff and senior-IC levels. Real-world stack: a fractional CFO at three SaaS companies, $9k/mo each, ~12 hours/wk total. $27k/mo at the high end — clears any single full-time CFO offer below $325k. Same skill, three buyers, no single point of layoff failure.
The catch: 1099, no benefits, no equity. Run the comparison honestly. Add ~30% to the gross for self-employment tax, health insurance, retirement. Pull from your holding co (Issue 002) so the entity is already in place. At a $200k threshold, the fractional stack consistently nets more cash; below that, the W2 still wins. The breakeven is the math that nobody runs.
What to do this week
Map your job to a 12-hour-a-week deliverable. If the JD compresses to a one-page deliverable spec, fractional is realistic. If it doesn’t, your full-time role has illegible scope — which is also useful to know.
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50/30/20 is dead when 30% of your comp is paper.
The 50/30/20 rule (50% needs, 30% wants, 20% savings) assumes your income is cash. For most tech operators in 2026, 25–45% of total comp is RSUs or unvested ISOs — paper, not cash, and per Carta data ~70% of pre-IPO grants never reach their headline value. Applying 50/30/20 to your offer letter is allocating money you may never see.
The 2026 allocation that actually works: cash-only budget at the 50/30/20 split, then equity treated separately on a probability-discounted basis. RSUs at public co: 85% probability, sell on vest unless you have conviction. Private ISOs pre-Series C: 20% probability, treat as a lottery ticket, never let it cross 15% of net worth (Issue 005, Play 02). Two ledgers, not one budget.
What to do this week
Open your last paystub. Apply 50/30/20 to base+bonus only, not to RSU values. If the cash-only math breaks (it usually does for renters in HCOL), the spending is being subsidized by equity that hasn’t vested. Resize or relocate.
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Spreadsheet AI: pivot tables and forecasts you can talk to.
The latest Claude + Excel/Sheets integration shipped in February. Upload a 12-tab quarterly model, ask “what’s the COGS variance by region driven by, and what would 200 bps of inflation do to operating margin” — get a written answer plus the cells used to derive it. The unlock isn’t generating formulas. It’s reading a model someone else built without spending three hours interviewing its author.
Best use cases this week: due-diligence on a public co before a meeting, vendor pricing comparison across 8 quotes in a single sheet, board-deck financials in 20 minutes from raw P&L. The cost is the spreadsheet is now legible to anyone — including the auditor. Plan accordingly.
What to do this week
Pull the most opaque spreadsheet on your team Drive — the one you avoid because it takes 30 minutes to load it in your head. Upload to Claude. Ask three questions a stakeholder would ask. Note where it’s confidently wrong vs right. That note is your usage rules.
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Sell the automation you built at work, to companies that haven’t.
The dirty secret of internal tooling: every BigCo PM has built a Looker dashboard, a Zapier flow, or a Notion ops template that quietly saves their team 8 hours/week. That artifact is sellable. Strip the proprietary data, package the template, charge $497–$2,500 on Gumroad or via a SaaS wrapper. A reader sold his “weekly exec brief generator” (his actual Notion template plus AI prompts) to 14 other PMs at three companies for $11k last quarter.
The legal: check your IP assignment. If the template uses company-specific data or systems, it’s the company’s. If it’s generic workflow knowledge you happened to apply at work, it’s yours. The distinction is usually clear; the only mistake is not asking.
What to do this week
List the 3 internal tools you built that you’d miss in a new job. Pick the most generic. Rebuild it in 90 minutes with no company-specific data. Upload to Gumroad at $497. If it sells once, package the next one.
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Climate capex: $1.4T heading to insurance, water, ag.
The climate-capex story is bigger than EVs and solar. Per CBO + Bloomberg NEF, the $1.4T of US-tagged 2026 climate-adjacent spend is splitting into: $480B grid + transmission, $310B EVs/charging, $220B reinsurance & parametric insurance, $160B water/wastewater, $130B precision-ag tech, $100B carbon-removal pilots.
Career implication: the “cleantech” jobs aren’t at solar startups. They’re at Munich Re’s climate-risk desk, AWR/AWK utilities, John Deere autonomy, Liberty Mutual’s parametric team. Insurance-adjacent climate roles cleared $180–$240k median in 2025 per Levels.fyi. Boring industries, real money, no hype premium.
What to do this week
If “climate” is in your career consideration set, search jobs at the four companies above. The roles look like ops PM, actuarial analyst, supply-chain lead — not what you’d see at a climate-tech VC’s portfolio.
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◆ Chart of the Week
$1.4T climate capex. Most of it isn’t solar.
2026 climate-tagged capex, by category
| Reinsurance / parametric | $220B |
| Precision agriculture | $130B |
| Carbon removal pilots | $100B |
Sources: CBO, BNEF. The press talks about the first two lines. The careers are in lines 3–6.
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◆ The Tape
$27K Fractional stack monthly cap |
+38% Senior contract posts YoY |
$1.4T Climate capex, 2026 |
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One favour before you go
Reply with one number: 01, 02, 03, 04, or 05 — which play you’d run first this week.
I read every reply. They shape what shows up in Issue 007.
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Go run something. See you next Sunday.
— The Operator
still at McKinsey, still building
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© 2026 New Money
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